UNEMPLOYMENT DOWN TO 8.1%
The jobless rate dipped 0.1% in April, but Wall Street didn’t exactly cheer about it as just 115,000 non-farm jobs were added to the economy. Economists polled by Briefing.com thought payrolls would expand by 162,000. The Dow fell 168 points Friday on the news. On the bright side, job gains across February and March were revised upward by 53,000. Payrolls grew by a cumulative total of 635,000 positions in Q1 2012, making it the best quarter for hiring since Q1 2006.

CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.3%
Analysts termed March’s gain disappointing after the (upwardly revised) 0.9% advance in February. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News anticipated a 0.4% improvement. Consumer incomes rose 0.4% in March, the best month in that category since December; consumer wages were up 0.3%.

U.S. MANUFACTURING INDEX LEAPS NORTH
The Institute for Supply Management’s April manufacturing PMI rose 1.4% in April to 54.8, representing the best monthly gain since June. Now for the bad news: the ISM non-manufacturing index showed a 2.5% drop in the same month to 53.5.

AVERAGE RATE ON 30-YEAR FRM: 3.84%
That is a new all-time low recorded by Freddie Mac in its May 3 Primary Mortgage Market Survey. A year prior, interest rates on 30-year conventional home loans averaged 4.71%. Rates on the refinancer’s favorite tool – the 15-year FRM – have dropped from 3.89% to just 3.07% in the same time frame.

STOCKS DECLINE
The job report drained enthusiasm from the market Friday, and stocks retreated for the week. The five-day performances: S&P 500, -2.44% to 1,369.10; DJIA, -1.44% to 13,028.27; NASDAQ, -3.68% to 2,956.34. Also notable: oil’s dive back under $100. At Friday’s NYMEX close, crude futures settled at $98.49, down 6.14% in a week.

Q1 GDP: +2.2%
The federal government’s initial estimate disappointed many analysts, even with plenty of potential for upward revision later. After all, Q4 2011 had brought growth of 3.0%. Economists polled by Briefing.com expected the Q1 estimate to come in at +2.5%. Personal spending rose by 2.9% for the quarter, with car sales playing the largest role in the gain; subtract vehicle purchases, and the consumption increase was 1.1%, the smallest in four quarters.

KEY CONSUMER SENTIMENT SURVEY TOPS ESTIMATES
The final April Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 76.4, 0.7% higher than the prior 75.7 reading. Economists polled by Briefing.com thought there would be no advance. March’s final survey had a 76.2 reading.

MORE HOME SALES CONTRACTS INKED IN MARCH
Pending home sales improved by 4.1% in March to reach their highest level since April 2010, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors. Another bit of good news was unexpected: February’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed prices rising 0.2% overall, the first advance recorded in ten months. Last week, Zillow said the median U.S. home value had increased 0.5% in March, the best monthly gain in six years. The sour note in last week’s real estate roundup was new home sales. The Census Bureau said they were down 7.1% in March. However, the median sale price was up 6.3% year-over-year.

NASDAQ HAS BEST WEEK IN NEARLY 3 MONTHS
The tech-heavy index rose 2.29% across April 23-27 to settle at 3,069.20 Friday. The Dow gained 1.53% across the same stretch to finish the week at 13,228.31, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.80% last week to 1,403.36 at Friday’s close. With one market day to go in April, only the Dow is in positive territory for the month.

WHAT HELD UP HOMEBUYING LAST MONTH?
The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell 2.6% for March. A 1.3% drop in inventory for the month might have been a factor, and mild weather in January and February may have helped homes that would have sold in March sell earlier. Warmer January and February temperatures may have also skewed the numbers for housing starts: the Commerce Department said they slipped 5.8% in March. Now for some good news: building permits rose 4.5% last month to the best pace since September 2008, and Freddie Mac had interest rates on 30-year fixed rate home loans averaging just 3.90% last week.

RETAIL SALES UP 0.8% IN MARCH
This follows a 1.0% gain in the category in February. Did gas prices account for much of the increase? No. Minus gas and car sales, the March gain was 0.7%, and core retail sales (minus autos, gas, and home supplies) rose 0.5% last month.

LEADING INDICATORS BACK TO MID-2008 LEVELS
The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators reached 95.7 in March, getting closer to the 100 mark that would imply a healthy economy. The index rose 0.3% for the month with seven of ten indicators positive; interest rate spreads, building permits, stock gains and credit availability were the biggest influences.

DOW BREAKS LOSING STREAK, GOLD PULLS BACK
Across April 16-20, the Dow gained 1.40% to 13,029.26 (its first weekly advance in three weeks), the NASDAQ lost 0.36% to 3,000.45 and the S&P 500 gained 0.60% to 1,378.53. Gold futures fell $17.00 (1.02%) on the week, settling Friday at $1,642.10; oil ended the week at $103.05 after a 0.21% gain across five trading days.

CONSUMER PRICES ROSE 0.3% IN MARCH
Last month’s gain in the federal government’s Consumer Price Index matched the consensus forecast of economists polled by Briefing.com and followed gains of 0.4% in February and 0.2% in January. Gasoline prices were up 1.7% last month. Core CPI rose 0.2%, so that put annualized consumer inflation at 2.7%, less than the 2.9% recorded in February. Headline producer prices were flat in March, while the core Producer Price Index rose 0.3% (the fifth straight monthly rise in core PPI). Economists polled by Reuters had expected overall PPI to rise 0.2% last month.

CONSUMER SENTIMENT WAVERS
April’s initial Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 75.7, slightly below the Briefing.com consensus projection of 76.1 and down from the final March number of 76.2. Frustration over gas prices may have had an effect.

BEIGE BOOK: RECOVERY PROCEEDING NICELY
The Federal Reserve’s latest snapshot of a dozen U.S. economic regions reported “modest to moderate” economic growth overall, with all 12 Fed districts anecdotally noting expansion. For the record, the Fed has described the recovery using the “modest to moderate” phrase in three consecutive Beige Books.

OIL & GAS PRICES FALL; Gold RISES
Friday, AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report had regular unleaded averaging $3.90 a gallon, down $0.035 from last week. On the NYMEX, oil lost 0.46% on the week to settle at $102.83 Friday; gold settled at $1,660.20 after a 1.85% weekly gain.

BULLS BATTLE BEARS
April 9-13 was a volatile stretch for the market. For the week, the DJIA went -1.61% to 12,849.59, the S&P 500 -1.99% to 1,370.26 and the NASDAQ -2.25% to 3,011.33. All S&P 500 sectors lost ground on the week as concerns about Spain’s debt and U.S. corporate earnings affected investor outlooks.

UNEMPLOYMENT FALLS TO 8.2%
That good news was tempered by some disappointments. The U.S. economy only managed a net gain of 120,000 non-farm jobs in March; analysts were hoping for a gain of at least 200,000. The private sector added 121,000 positions in March; ADP had projected an increase of 209,000. However, the underemployment rate declined again last month (to 14.5%) and the manufacturing sector grew by 37,000 jobs.

ONE PMI TOPS EXPECTATIONS; ANOTHER DOESN’T
The start of each month brings the latest surveys of purchasing managers from the Institute for Supply Management. ISM’s March service sector PMI came in at 56.0 and its March manufacturing PMI came in at 53.4. Economists polled by Briefing.com thought the manufacturing PMI would reach 53.0 and the service sector PMI would reach 56.7.

A GREAT MARCH FOR AUTOMAKERS
Warm weather fostered greater car and truck buying. The following firms reported the following monthly sales increases last week: General Motors, 12%; Chrysler Group, 34%, Toyota, 15%; Ford, 5%; Volkswagen, 35%; Nissan, 12.5%.

OIL ADVANCES, GOLD SLIPS
Oil prices rose 0.28% last week to settle at $103.31 a barrel on the NYMEX, while retail unleaded gas prices averaged $3.94 a gallon nationally on Friday. Gold futures fell 2.50% on the COMEX to wrap up last week at $1,630.10 an ounce.

STOCKS RETREAT IN SHORT TRADING WEEK
Across four market days, the Dow lost 1.15% to 13,060.14, the S&P 500 fell 0.74% to 1,398.08 and the NASDAQ dipped 0.36% to 3,080.50. So the worst week for stocks so far in 2012 wasn’t that bad. A contributing factor: the minutes from the March 13 FOMC meeting signaled that the Federal Reserve might not attempt further stimulus efforts. However, the March jobs report could help to alter the Fed’s outlook.

HIGH GAS PRICES DONT DENT PERSONAL SPENDING
Consumer spending increased by 0.8% in February, even with fuel prices soaring. That topped the 0.6% gain projected by economists polled by Reuters. Februarys inflation-adjusted gain was 0.5%, the largest in six months. Januarys headline personal spending gain was doubled to 0.4% in a Commerce Department revision.

HOW IS THE CONSUMER FEELING?
The final March University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey hints that morale may be rising on Main Street. It came in at 76.2, well above the 74.3 consensus of economists polled by Briefing.com. On the other hand, the March consumer confidence poll from the Conference Board fell to 70.2 from Februarys 71.6 mark, which was in line with the expectations of those economists.

MORTGAGE RATES DIP BACK UNDER 4%
Freddie Macs March 29 survey found the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate home loan at 3.99% with an average 0.7 point. Rates on 15-year FRMs averaged 3.23% with an average 0.8 point last week. A sour note: the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell 3.8% in January to a low unseen since the end of 2002.

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS UP 2.2% FOR FEBRUARY
This reverses some of the 3.6% retreat from January. However, economists polled by Briefing.com had expected a 2.8% gain for the month.

A TREMENDOUS QUARTER WRAPS UP
The best first quarter for stocks in 14 years ended with another solid week: DJIA, +1.00% to 13,212.04; S&P 500, +0.81% to 1,408.47; NASDAQ, +0.77% to 3,091.57. Look at these Q1 performances: NASDAQ, +18.67% (its best quarter in 21 years); Dow, +8.14%; S&P 500, +12.00%. Gold futures climbed $9.50 for the week, settling Friday at $1,671.90 an ounce. Gold gained 6.71% for the quarter. NYMEX crude fell $3.85 last week, but still ended March at $103.02 with a 4.24% quarterly gain.

HOUSING MARKET COOLS DOWN IN FEBRUARY
Nationally, home sales took a step back last month. Last week, the National Association of Realtors reported a 0.9% drop in residential resales in February. The federal government subsequently announced a 1.6% slip in new home purchases last month, although new home prices rose by over 8.0%. The year-over-year numbers are better: existing home sales have jumped 8.8% in the last 12 months, and new home sales have picked up by 11.4%. Housing starts were down 1.1% in February from January’s 4-year high, but building permits were up 5.1% for the month.

INITIAL CLAIMS HIT A NEW 4-YEAR LOW
According to the Labor Department, claims fell by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 for the week ending March 17. This is the smallest amount since March 2008.

LEADING INDICATORS MOVE NORTH AGAIN
The Conference Board’s monthly index rose 0.7% for February, with reduced jobless claims and the interest rate spread exerting the most influence. Eight of the index’s ten indicators were up for the month.

BULLS PRESS PAUSE BUTTON
Stocks pulled back for the week as anxieties over subpar foreign manufacturing indices inspired some profit-taking. A new concern surfaced Friday: Reuters said Iran’s oil exports had dropped 14% this month. The S&P 500 retreated 0.50% last week to 1,397.11 Friday. The DJIA lost 1.15% on the week to settle Friday at 13,080.73, while the NASDAQ advanced 0.41% in five days to wrap up Friday at 3,067.92. Gold ended the week at $1,662.40 an ounce, oil at $106.87 a barrel. Unleaded gasoline averaged $3.89 a gallon nationally in AAA’s newest price survey.

PRICES RISE MOST IN TEN MONTHS
Consumer prices were up 0.4% in February according to the Commerce Department, yet core inflation rose only 0.1%. A 6% jump in gasoline prices represented 80% of the Consumer Price Indexs biggest gain since April, while food prices were flat for the first time since July 2010. Economists polled by Bloomberg expected a 0.5% rise in CPI for the month. Producer prices also rose 0.4% last month, but prices for finished products were up but 0.1%. Annualized inflation was at 2.9% in February; annualized core CPI was at 2.2%.

AN ILLUMINATING STATESIDE STRESS TEST
Applying a hypothetical doomsday scenario of the Dow losing half of its value, joblessness at 13% and home prices at 1996 levels, the Federal Reserve put 19 major U.S. banks through its annual stress test last week and found that 15 passed: American Express, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, BB&T, CapitalOne, Fifth Third, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Keycorp, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Regions, State Street, U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo. Four lenders did not pass the Fed concluded that Citigroup, SunTrust, Ally and MetLife would lose enough assets under the stress test scenario to pose systemic risk.

CONSUMERS BUY MORE, SHOW LESS CONFIDENCE
The Census Bureau noted a 1.1% rise in retail sales for February and revised the January gain north to 0.6%. Elsewhere, the initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for March showed a slight dip to 74.3 from 75.3 in late February.

BEST WEEK FOR U.S. EQUITIES SINCE DECEMBER
The NASDAQ? It went +2.24% on the week to settle Friday at 3,055.26. The Dow? Up 2.40% in five days to end the week at 13,232.62. The S&P 500? +2.43% to 1,404.17 at Fridays close. More good news: the CBOE VIX settled below 15 Friday after touching a 5-year low. Crude oil was down 0.32% for the week to $107.06, gold down 3.25% last week to $1,655.80.

227,000 NEW JOBS, BUT JOBLESS RATE STILL AT 8.3%
While unemployment levels remained unchanged in February, Labor Department data showed that nonfarm payrolls expanded by more than 200,000 positions for the third straight month. The private sector added 233,000 jobs in February, so it was basically responsible for the impressive net job gain. The underemployment rate (representing the jobless plus those settling for less than a 40-hour workweek) was 14.9% in February, a 1.8% drop from a year before. With such consistent job growth, the Federal Reserve faces less pressure to roll out another monetary stimulus.

SERVICE SECTOR GROWS IN February
The Institute for Supply Management’s service sector PMI climbed to 57.3 for February, seeing a half-percent gain. A 3.1% jump in business activity/production and a 1.8% rise in new orders were nice highlights.

OIL, GOLD END WEEK WITH MODERATE GAINS
From Wednesday to Friday, gold futures rose $39.50 and oil futures $2.70. For the week, gains were actually modest: oil advanced but $0.70 on the NYMEX to $107.40 a barrel, while gold racked up a $2.10 gain to end Friday’s COMEX session at $1,710.90 per ounce. The price of unleaded gas was $3.76 a gallon nationally on Friday per AAA’s survey.

LITTLE VOLATILITY AFTER GREEK BOND SWAP
On Wall Street, March 5-9 mirrored the week before: the Dow pulled back (-0.43% to 12,922.02) and the NASDAQ (+0.41% to 2,988.34) and S&P 500 (+0.09% to 1,370.87) advanced. The market was still wary of the debt deal out of the EU – last week, 86% of investors holding Greek bonds agreed to swap securities issued by the Greek government for replacement ones worth less, and collective action clauses will force about 10% more of these bondholders to do so. While this seemingly opens the door for a new €130 billion EU/IMF rescue package for Greece, it could be the last bailout Greece receives.

A GAIN (OF SORTS) IN CONSUMER SPENDING
The Commerce Department noted a 0.2% rise in personal spending in January along with a 0.3% rise in wages. However, real consumer spending was flat for the third consecutive month when adjusted for inflation. Headline personal spending rose 2.1% in Q4 2011. Many economists expect a comparable gain this quarter. In related news, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised Q4 GDP north to 3.0% last week.

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS, ISM INDEX DECLINE
While the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index spent its 31st consecutive month above 50, it did dip 1.7% in February to 52.4 – well below the 54.7 consensus forecast among economists polled by Briefing.com. Last week, the Commerce Department said that hard goods orders decreased 4.0% in January (the expiration of the 2011 tax break on capital investment was likely a factor).

HOME PRICES SLIP, BUT SALES CONTRACTS INCREASE
The good news: pending home sales increased 2.0% in January according to the National Association of Realtors. Economists polled by Briefing.com had forecast only half that gain. The not-so-good news: December’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed a 3.8% monthly decline and a 4.0% annual retreat in existing home prices.

S&P & NASDAQ ADVANCE; DOW HAS A FLAT WEEK
Friday, the DJIA settled at 12,977.57, the NASDAQ at 2,976.19 and the S&P 500 at 1,369.13. The Dow lost 0.04% from Monday to Friday while the S&P and NASDAQ respectively gained 0.28% and 0.42%. Retail gasoline prices were averaging $3.74 a gallon nationally on Friday; oil futures lost 2.80% last week to settle at $106.70 per barrel. Gold retreated 3.75% on the COMEX for the week to settle at $1,709.80 an ounce Friday.